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The Minnesota Vikings finished 7-9 in 2020 and 8-9 in 2021, just off the pace of playoff contention. An extra win in either season would have shoved the Vikings into the postseason, albeit in the lowly seventh seed.
The new Minnesota brass evidently believes the team isn’t far from true contendership. Otherwise, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah could have taken a cleaver to the roster and started over. He did not.
If the Vikings are to win the division for the first time since 2017, knocking off the Green Bay Packers, a team that has won the NFC North thrice consecutively, these four items must be fixed.
1. Defensive Meltdowns at End of Halves
The Vikings allowed more points in the final two minutes of halves during 2021 than any team in decades. When the game was on the line, the defense crumbled. Plain and simple. Had the Vikings fielded a “normal” two-minute defense, they would’ve reached the playoffs last year.
The end-of-half collapses were new — the true undoing of Mike Zimmer’s famously good defense. Even in the 4th Quarter, not limited to the last couple of minutes of halves, the Vikings regressed over the last two years.
Points Allowed in 4th Quarter,
Vikings Ranking,
Since 2014:
2014 = 13th
2015 = 11th
2016 = 6th
2017 = 3rd
2018 = 13th
2019 = 3rd
2020 = 25th
2021 = 18th
This needs repair by Ed Donatell and his 3-4 scheme.
2. Offensive Line Pass Protection
These rankings prevented the Vikings offense from reaching optimal potential under Zimmer:
Vikings OL Pass Protection,
Ranking from PFF,
Since 2014:
2014 = 23rd
2015 = 28th
2016 = 30th
2017 = 17th
2018 = 27th
2019 = 27th
2020 = 29th
2021 = 27th
The numbers are embarrassing for a team that aspires to be “all-in” every year, especially since 2016. Super Bowl-winning teams don’t trip and fall into February with bad pass protection. Minnesota has tried to be the outlier since Kirk Cousins arrived in 2018.
Thankfully, Adofo-Mensah already added Jesse Davis, Chris Reed, and Ed Ingram to solve this longstanding OL tomfoolery. If the new offense-minded coaching staff rights the OL wrongs of years past, the Vikings will be in great shape to dethrone the Packers.
3. Offensive Ruts via Playcalling
The 2021 Vikings led the NFL in 3-and-Outs. They were also 26th in offensive 3rd Down conversion percentage and 27th in offensive penalty yards.
Make it stop.
Those elements of futility will stop any football team in its tracks, disabling playoff contention. Pair those three sad metrics with a bad pass-protecting offensive line, defensive collapses at the end of halves, and it’s no wonder the team didn’t make the playoffs last season.
The playcalling would curiously become vanilla at times in 2021. That can’t happen again. Or, if it does, it must be minimal.
4. Overall Defense
From 2014 to 2019, the Vikings defense ranked first in the NFL per Defensive EPA/Play. From 2020 to 2021, the Vikings defense ranked 23rd in the NFL per Defensive EPA/Play.
This is not sorcery. Do not spend any more time wondering “why the Vikings went bad” in the last two years. The defense fell off a cliff. Zimmer’s defense went from 1st to 23rd. That sinks a franchise. It sunk the Vikings.
So, Minnesota’s defense must be restored, ideally achieving a ranking of 14th or better. It is unlikely to reenact the Zimmer heyday. Few coaches can consistently foster that. The Vikings defense needs to be good. Not excellent; not terrible. Good.
Then, perhaps it can get hot in January or February.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sally from Minneapolis. His Viking fandom dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).
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